Covid-19 is booming back

29-Apr-2023

Last Saturday I met Deepak Bhatia and Pete over dinner, and I was told by Deepak on Sunday that his son is now positive for covid-19. That's like oops, and there started the isolation for next couple of days. Unfortunately, I had met Dipak Mishra in the morning. I cancelled my morning walks and any plan to go to office this week. A couple of planned dinners were cancelled. Suddenly, there was more, Arup got positive last Monday too and then a couple of few more here and there. #Covid-19 is still scary and socially pressuring as everyone gets conscious of it. Well, the good news is that by end of this week we all who had dined last Saturday still remained negative. I started my walk back today and it feels very refreshing. 

Next two weeks looks very busy, guess nothing new. My visa appointment is on 3rd May, hopefully it will go well, and I can travel to US. I still have to close on the house, and most important is my interview on 12th May. It is stressing to be honest. 

Spoke to Venky this morning and he will be shifting to Atlanta end of May in the home he already bought. I am not sure, whether he is still active in trading, but he talks less about it. May we both have accepted that it has to work this way only for us, where we continue to focus on our jobs and still keep entertaining us with the trading. It will only be a side gig. I am looking forward to seeing him if I am able to visit Miami on 15th May, but it looks tight unless I go a bit early. Well, let's see. 

Home scenario is still the same, looking forward for Pallavi and Myra to travel to Bangkok after 20th May. Anvay is still juggling with what he is going do next. He must have got some confidence after his acceptance to Penn's State. However, it is without any scholarship offer so have to pass it guess due to large fees and expenses. It is estimated to cost $50k for a year, which is like fucking too much for someone earning in India or Thailand. 

Markets looking so bullish and India #VIX (Volatility index) under 11. I read its lowest in last 40 months and seems like nifty is going to fire a bit more on the upside. This is not good news for my positions as I rolled over short 17200 CE to May which is taking heavy losses. April was a total disaster; however, net P&L was positive 3k. It's a shame, but I like green. I think I am stuck in this short call trade and a positive May will be a bigger challenge than April. Premiums are low as VIX is lowest, and there is no money on the adjustments when you sell more PEs. It's not an ideal scenario for option sellers. 

I took few aggressive bets to adjust April toward positive, like traded #banknifty, #adanienterprises and it helped to some extent. The trend is so directional that you just have to sell puts to make money. I am stuck because of my short call position, and I didn't see this big bull trend coming. I don't think we will see 17800 on #nifty during May. 

Suddenly, everything on economy locally and globally looks so vibrant (Ukraine war still going on, and I don't know whether I should call Zelensky very brave or idiot. World seems to be more chaotic this week with fighting in Sudan. 

Well, I don't want to think too much, and will handle as it comes. Next week is a very short week, with few holidays so looking forward getting some rest and focus on my big interview. It's like finding a new job.

vA

Catchup week and a decent recovery from a potential loss

23-Apr-2023

It was a quite productive week as I was able to complete and got few reviews done on the profile. I was able to catch up on my walk. It is still fewer steps from normal but better than the last few weeks. I had small session on tennis also this morning. Also, looked at few home options at #Bangkok, though didn't find anyone great. I am still awaiting on US Visa moving forward but have only 3 weeks left to sort this out. I guess, next few weeks are going to be busier with a lot of action coming on the work front. It always like this, so I am not panicking and take a step at a time. 

I am glad, Pallavi is okay after recent infection that she got and that kept me very worried. She needs to gain weight as it is already at a critical point, so she has to be happy, less stressed and also feel content from her job. This is my top priority, and a part of my brain keeps on thinking about it. Second on the personal front is where Anvay going to land up. I prefer he gets to some NIT, but that doesn't seem to be an option so have to look for alternates. And yeah, I need to read his book.

Yesterday, I had a catchup with Tina and k-Fon and also met Deepak Bhatia and Pete over dinner. Some gossip, personal lives and yeah, usual chit-chat. It was nice to see the guys after long. I guess this is the important part of our role that we do to drive things and relationships pay an important role in making that happen. 

I am still juggling to make the profits for April, but as of last Friday, I have considerably recovered from the loss-making nifty call positions with the net loss of around 29k. I am not sure if I can turn it around from red to green in next 5 trading days. I should be thankful to #Infy, whose results spook the markets and stopped the upward trend giving me a chance to recover. The direction is not very clear, but banking can drive it up as large banks seems to post good numbers and most of the downside from the tech is already priced in. 

My going in strategy is to add some short positions on the May calls and more puts on the downside to catch up with my April loss.  I will still call it a decent recovery for my positions as, last week I was looking at around 200k loss, which would have been very bad. My priority is still to get April to profit and see how to improve on my trading positions setup. I need to look at the hedging options like moving to iron fly or iron condors from strangles. 

Read this week that #India is now the most populous country something we shouldn't be very proud of. The load will put further constraints on jobs, and limited resources that the country has. It will now take decades to rollback this, once everyone starts to think about this problem from objective reasons. On the economy side, the rates cycle seems to have peaked out and this likely to be the good news for the bulls which means downside risk for markets may be limited. 

vA

Travel to Bangkok via Mumbai

 16-Apr-2023

I am writing this from Mumbai Chatrapati Shivaji International Airport. Mumbai is the financial capital of India and this my first time going to Bangkok via Mumbai. The side effects of booking ticket late. The international departure terminal is nicely built and looks quite beautiful. It was way less crowded compare to Delhi one, and especially the immigration and security part was much faster.

A lot was achieved this week after the hospital episode last week. We got the post hospitalization consultation completed, able to pull through my promotion candidate package, pest control done for the beetles and still able to find time for some outing with kids. The biopsy report was negative, which was a big relief and guess Pallavi also got relieved. I still feel deprived of sleep as it was an overwhelming week but will find time to cover it next week :)

The plan for the next few weeks has already been laid, it is going to be focused on my promotion presentation and rehearsal, sorting out US visa for Miami travel and also, finding a new home at Bangkok as Nararthiwas is no longer affordable. Well, that's what Life is, you finish some tasks and new tasks get added, and you reset your brain to chase those. 

On the trading front, it looks like I have to take a heavy loss in April series. The #banknifty bullishness is not going to die even the IT pack is weak. It seems like I have to move to condors that short strangles sooner as the possibilities of recovery from such scenario where index rallies 700-1000 points in 2-3 weeks is not going to be manageable with the current margin I have. Also, the other mistake this time was not sticking to the same position sizing of 400 qty. My action will be to recover as much as possible within April and then rollover this to May. Short terms scenario for #nifty looks to be 18000 in April series, though #Infy results on Monday may try to trim bulls. I need to do some action on Monday morning, if Infosys plays in my favor, though I have a feeling that it will be an initial jerk and bank-nifty will pull the index up. Hope for the best, which is not the right this to do in trading "rely on hope"

vA

Back home and a difficult week at markets

 
09-Apr-2023

We ended a difficult week with few days at hospital where my wife got admitted for some tests as she continues to lose weight over the past few years w/o the real cause found. It was supposed to be 1-2 days procedure, but we ended up spending three full days with the total expenses exceeded our estimates. It was far more of a mental harassment than the money I would say in the end.  I was regretting my decision to choose this path for tests; however, our doctor was equally responsible for misguiding us. The ordeal is far from over as all test results don't show any significant issues. We need to continue finding more causes with CT/MRIs advised at the discharge. However, we are glad that we are back home after this ordeal.

Our #anniversary will be low key affair as Pallavi already feeling very weak from the endoscopy and colonoscopy tests which normally drain you out.  I am hopeful that she will feel better after few days. 

Anvay had his second attempt at JEE Mains, with 49 Q attempts. It is going to be busy few next weeks for him as its most of the competitive exams will be held in next two months. I need to travel back to Thailand on 16th due to upcoming work permit renewal, and as I was telling my wife that Apr-Jun seems to be very chaotic and busy with lot of different priorities. a) Pallavi's medical attention b) Work-permit renewal c) Anvay's test for under-graduate admissions d) Travel to US for Golden Circle e) my presentation deck, prep for my interview and panel interview for my next step. On top of it, I now have to find a permanent home in Bangkok as Narathiwas Residences has gone very expensive, and I can't afford it.  

I didn't trade this week much as it was a short week, and I was only adjusting my loss-making positions on the 17200 CE. Markets has shown bullishness and it is going to hit 17700 shortly, it seems like. I guess, I am caught on the wrong side, as I was expecting a pullback from 17500 levels. I will now have to spend quite a few days/weeks to adjust these positions to avoid big loss, and therefore, I expect to make less trades. The positions now showing an unrealized loss of 100k, with 24k of realized gains, net unrealized loss of 76k. I have been through similar situations and my learning curve on this is still how to don't get into this kind of situation. I guess, it has to be not mixing up short term with long term #macro trends. In short, markets were over-sold and a 700 run in two weeks is difficult to protect. I hope I will be able to manage this as in the past.

vA